Chinese authorities knew, of course, that Randal Phillips was a former senior officer with the Central Intelligence Agency. After all, his online biography notes his stint as the “Chief CIA representative in China” – a clumsy euphemism for chief of station, or head spy, in Beijing.

Still, after leaving the CIA in 2011 Phillips chose to live as a private businessman in the heart of what U.S. intelligence considers a “hard target” to be with his then-future wife, an American diplomat. And for years, he said, the Chinese security services mostly left him alone.

Phillips assumed there was plenty of what he called “technical surveillance” — electronic eavesdropping on his calls or emails — but it wasn’t until early 2017 that he “got a request to go have tea” from “local security service types,” he said. Even then the conversation was cordial, and his interlocutors seemed more interested in the business model of his new line of work in corporate investigations.

RELATED: From China to Climate Change: 5 Fears of the US Intelligence Community

Though he had heard of other similar approaches by Chinese authorities to other American businessmen around the time, all in all Phillips said he felt safe.

But a year after a novel coronavirus outbreak sent the ex-CIA man and his wife back to the U.S. in early 2020, Phillips told Code and Dagger in an exclusive interview that he’s not going back.

It’s not because he’s worried about COVID-19 -- but because he fears Americans might be the next target in China’s alarming use of what he considered “hostage diplomacy,” the arbitrary arrest of foreign citizens to gain concessions from their home country.

Phillips said the consensus of several of his business contacts in China, a consensus he shares, is that “there’s no doubt that that day is coming. It’s just a matter of when [the Chinese government] wants to decide to do it.”

There have already been some cases of Americans being picked up by Chinese authorities in recent years, and Chinese officials went as far as baldly threatening the arrest of U.S. citizens last summer, according to a report in October by the Wall Street Journal. Around that time, the U.S. government issued warning to Americans in China about the potential for the “arbitrary enforcement of local laws.”

But Phillips said that for the most part, the Chinese government appears to have made the calculation that it’s not worth it, diplomatically, to arrest Americans – yet.

“I think with all the signals that they’re sending on this, and just their increased, let’s call it confidence in China’s position in the world and how they view the U.S. as being in relative decline, I think the calculus is changing in terms of what the harm might be,” he said.

RELATED: FBI Head: Chinese Spies Lurk Around US Academic Community (2018)

Phillips pointed to the ongoing case of “the two Michaels.” The Michaels in question, Canadian businessmen Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig, were arrested separately in China in December 2018 on charges related to stealing state secrets. The arrests were widely seen by Canadian and American officials as retaliation for the arrest in Canada of a high-profile Chinese business executive. The executive, Meng Wanzhou, is currently fighting extradition to the U.S. where she faces fraud charges. (An attorney for Meng reportedly argued in a Canadian court that the U.S. was attempting a “power grab” and that its attempt to force Meng’s extradition was a violation of international law.)

Chinese officials have claimed the timing of the arrests was coincidental. A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Canada said last month that China is a “country with rule of law” and that the two Michaels were “arrested an prosecuted in accordance” with the law. However, the spokesperson appeared to link their cases with Meng’s, saying Canada’s claims of arbitrary detention were “hypocritical and arrogant!” (exclamation point theirs) in light of Canada’s arrest of Meng. “It is imperative for the Canadian side to immediately correct its mistakes and release Meng Wanzhou and ensure her safe return to China,” the spokesperson said.

Both Canadians were recently put on trial behind closed doors, though verdicts have yet to be announced.

As to China’s stance towards the U.S., Phillips said there could be a strategic pause by Chinese President Xi Jinping to see how the new Biden administration will approach America’s largest economic rival. But Phillips predicted that it was likely the bilateral relationship would sour – perhaps even to the level of U.S. relations with adversaries like Russia or Iran. (Code and Dagger spoke with Phillips in mid-March, before top U.S. and Chinese officials had a very tense first meeting in Alaska.)

Both Russia and Iran have been accused of using “hostage diplomacy” against the U.S. in recent years – including after the arrest of ex-U.S. Marine Paul Whelan in Moscow in December 2018 and following Iran’s detention of journalist Jason Rezaian in 2014, just to name a couple of the many purported cases.

The recent Canadian cases in China underscored the issue enough that new U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken released a video statement in February in support of a Canadian declaration condemning “arbitrary detentions” as “completely unacceptable.”

“Put simply, this is when someone traveling or living abroad… is detained by the government and falsely charged or sentenced because of the country on their passport,” Blinken said. “Then they’re used to gain leverage in state-to-state relations. They become a bargaining chip – a human pawn.”

According to the Canadian government, more than 60 countries endorsed the declaration against arbitrary detentions. China, Russia and Iran were not among them.

Phillips said America’s willingness under the administration of Donald Trump to take what he described as a tougher, “more realistic” approach to an emboldened China should continue under President Joe Biden.

RELATED: ‘Please Delete It’: How a US Firm Was Tricked Into Helping China’s Anti-Sub Mission (2018)

In 2018 the U.S. Department of Justice launched its “China Initiative” which focused on “countering Chinese national security threats.” Since then, a cascade of headlines have reported the sometimes controversial arrests of individuals in the U.S. on charges related to improperly aiding China. It was that initiative and the arrest of several academics, The Wall Street Journal reported, that prompted threats of American arrests in China in the summer of 2020.

If the U.S. keeps up the pressure, Phillips said policymakers should be clear-eyed and prepared for consequences from Beijing.

“China is looking at it as, they kind of have to push back,” Phillips said. “So I think there’s an increasing likelihood that they’re going to want to be more proactive in terms of looking at what U.S. persons are doing in China and try to strike back on that.”

“The overall situation just isn’t promising,” he said.

In recent months journalists have fled or been forced to leave China, with a BBC correspondent relocating to Taiwan after he said his family faced surveillance, threats of legal action and intimidation. In mid-March six American students were detained by Chinese police and some were reportedly roughed up.

Considering he still carries a diplomatic passport through his wife’s work, Phillips said he would probably be fairly well shielded from his own arbitrary detention should he return to Beijing. But with some family obligations in mind, and the unsettling outlook for U.S.-China relations, it’s just not worth the risk for him.

“I always expect that, depending on how a bilateral relationship goes, they could make that calculus that it’s worthwhile to take some kind of action at any time,” he said. “So I don’t think that risk has gone away at all.”

[Do you have a tip or question for Code and Dagger? Send it along at CodeAndDagger@protonmail.com. Also, consider contributing to Code and Dagger on Patreon at Patreon.com/CodeAndDagger.]