(Graphic by Code and Dagger. Original photo of Russian President Vladimir Putin via Russia’s office of the president. Map of Europe via Wikimedia Commons.)
In Russia, across Europe and in the U.S. scores of “diplomats” have been forced to pack their bags as the fallout from at least three simultaneous spying scandals continue to spread — each scandal blamed on, and denied by, Russia.
In just the past two months, more than 130 diplomats, purported spies and embassy staff have been forced out, according to media reports and government statements, with the number split about evenly between capitals of the West and Moscow, in the wake of allegations that Russian spies conducted cyber attacks against America, blew up an arms depot in the Czech Republic and were caught in other espionage operations.
Russian officials have denied the allegations and have generally tried to downplay the dizzying diplomatic slap-fight.
“Russian diplomats are being expelled and accused of all kinds of nonsense, with no grounds or facts whatsoever,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said last week. “We have been there before. It is a seasonal thing for the West. […] No big deal, we will survive this time too.”
RELATED: NATO Tabletop Game Includes Little Green Men Analogues
Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, a former longtime CIA officer who headed up European operations for the spy agency, told Code and Dagger that in a sense, Zakharova isn’t wrong that this is relatively normal for two reasons: Of course countries are spying on each other all the time, and of course when those operations are exposed, diplomatic expulsions follow. (Mowatt-Larssen doesn’t believe the “expulsion game” practically accomplishes much. “When you do it, you don’t win. They lose their people; you lose your people, and you get new guys in there,” he said. “But we go through this every time.”)
However, Mowatt-Larssen said what’s new is the recent drumbeat of headlines regarding purported busted Russian espionage operations and the surprisingly tough, “collective resolve” in response by the Europeans.
“What is unusual is the level of aggressiveness by the Russians and the European resolve to stop it,” he said, noting that in the past European governments tended to calculate that responding with expulsions wasn’t worth the trouble. “Considering the scope, the scale of the countries involved, it speaks to a much more serious and resolute response to the Russian espionage.”
“I love to see this reaction from the West,” he said. “I think they’ve had enough of it. They’re trying to send Russia a message politically.”
John Sipher, former senior CIA officer who served in Moscow, agreed, especially with regard to the major expulsion of dozens of Russian officials by the Czech government.
“The Czech response is a signal to other countries that the Russians have gone too far,” he said. “Is it enough to change [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s mind? Probably not, but it sends a signal that the price is getting bigger.”
RELATED: How Russia Got a Mole Inside US Special Forces
It can be hard to keep up with the rolling developments, so below is a non-exhaustive timeline of some key moves by the U.S., Europe and Russia just in the last couple months — not including longer-running controversies between Russia and Ukraine or the European Union.
TIMELINE:
March 22: Bulgaria expels two Russian diplomats after breaking up a purported spy ring there.
March 31: Italy expels two Russian officials following allegations of espionage involving Russian intelligence and an Italian Navy captain.
April 15: The United States expels 10 Russian officials after accusing the country of interfering with U.S. elections, launching the SolarWinds cyber attack and over allegations about paying bounties to the Taliban in Afghanistan for U.S. deaths. (That last allegation has become controversial in light of varying degrees of confidence from America’s intelligence agencies.) The same day, Poland expels three Russian officials “in solidarity” with the U.S.
April 16: Russia announces it will expel 10 American embassy officials and five Polish embassy officials in a tit-for-tat retaliation.
April 17: In a large move for a relatively small country, the Czech Republic expels 18 Russian embassy officials in response to new allegations that a Russian military spy unit blew up a private arms depot there in 2014.
April 19: Russia expels 20 Czech embassy officials. In its announcement, Russia’s foreign ministry said, "In their desire to please the United States against the background of recent US sanctions against Russia, Czech authorities in this respect even outdid their masters from across the pond.”
April 22: It’s a busy day for diplomatic drivers as Russia expels two Bulgarian officials in response to that country’s expulsion of two Russians on March 22. Slovakia expels three Russian diplomats in solidarity with the Czechs. And for its part, Czech officials announce they’re capping the number of Russian embassy staff in Prague, suggesting the practical expulsion of more Russian officials.
April 23: Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia join the solidarity-with-Czech movement, as two Russians are sent home from Lithuania and one each from the others. In response to the Czech Republic capping the staff of the Russian embassy in Prague, Moscow responds in kind. The Russian wire service Tass reports that means some 35 more Russian diplomats in Prague and another 16 Czech diplomats in Moscow will be sent home, not including dozens more in technical staff. (Sipher said that the Czechs likely came out ahead in this double-draw-down since he said Russia relies on their hub in Prague to spy on other European nations, and the Czech embassy in Moscow is relatively less valuable.)
April 26: Russia expels one Italian diplomat in tit-for-tat response to Italy’s expulsion of the two Russians in late March. The same day, Romania joins in the Russia-expulsion frenzy by sending one diplomat packing.
April 28: Russia responds to its eastern European neighbors “based on the principle of reciprocity” by expelling three Slovakian diplomats, two Lithuanian officials, one Estonian and one Latvian.
April 29: Bulgaria announces the expulsion of another Russian diplomat and requested Russian law enforcement’s assistance in looking into an arms depot that blew up and multiple poisonings of Bulgarians. The Russian foreign ministry vowed “retaliatory measures will follow.”
[This report was updated April 29, 2021 with additional analysis from former senior CIA official John Sipher and an additional expulsion by Bulgaria. Do you have a tip or question for Code and Dagger? Send it along at CodeAndDagger@protonmail.com. Also, consider contributing to Code and Dagger on Patreon at Patreon.com/CodeAndDagger.]