(Original photo courtesy Dept. of Defense; adjustments by Lee Ferran / Code and Dagger. Original caption: A U.S. Soldier assigned to Combine Joint Special Operations Task Force-Afghanistan records a man’s fingerprints during an operation in Ghorband district, Parwan province, Afghanistan, Jan. 15, 2014.)
Some al Qaeda members have been folded into Taliban forces, according to U.S. military intelligence. Though their role is described as “marginal,” their presence in the Taliban at all complicates the already fraught peace negotiations in Afghanistan.
“[A]ccording to the DIA [Defense Intelligence Agency], the Taliban maintains ties to al-Qaeda and its regional affiliate al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS),” reads the latest inspector general report on U.S. operations in Afghanistan. “This quarter, the DIA reported that some AQIS members in Afghanistan are integrated into the Taliban’s forces and command structures and play a marginal role in the Taliban-led insurgency in Afghanistan.”
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The publication of the assessment came just a day after the leader of a United Nations panel said there is “still clearly a close relationship between al Qaeda and the Taliban,” according to NBC News. “We believe that the top leadership of al Qaeda is still under Taliban protection.”
The inspector general report said the DIA estimates there are around 200 al Qaeda in Afghanistan — the low end of estimates by the U.N. [PDF] — and said that over the last reporting quarter the al Qaeda members “exhibited little discernable activity.”
But the acknowledgement that al Qaeda members are a part of the Taliban appears to undermine a key promise the Taliban made last year to not allow Afghanistan to once again become a launch pad for attacks on the U.S., as it was for the 9/11 attacks.
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It also contradicts the claim in March by then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that “the Taliban have now made the break” with al Qaeda. “This is historic in that way and no one should underestimate the Trump administration,” he said at the time.
The inspector general report said the U.S. government has not said whether al Qaeda’s presence among the Taliban’s ranks is a violation of early peace agreements, but it noted that the Biden administration is conducting a review of the Taliban’s position.
Al Qaeda likely supports the peace negotiations, the report said, in hopes of them leading to the withdrawal of U.S. forces as well as the pressure counter-terrorism operations have brought to bear on the group.
Meanwhile, the DIA officials told the inspector general they expect 2021 to be a bloody year in Afghanistan, as the Taliban likely believes that the sting of attacks in the country recently has only bolstered its position in negotiations in the eyes of the Afghan government.
“The DIA stated that the Afghanistan peace negotiations were unlikely to result in any extended ceasefire or reduction in violence in 2021,” the report said.
PRIMARY SOURCE: Inspector General Report on Operation Freedom’s Sentinel (State OIG, PDF)
PRIMARY SOURCE: UN Report on Al Qaeda, Taliban Links (UN.org, PDF)
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